that the party would contest all but six of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. ( Watch )
The declaration sets the stage for a tough Lok Sabha election in the politically crucial state, where BSP chief Mayawati will face off with arch-rival SP, with Congress and BJP completing the field.
The situation should ideally suit the Dalit leader aiming to blend her strongly-mobilized Dalit base with a chunk of Brahmins and Muslims to win enough seats to pitch her on the national scene. As a matter of fact, the collapse of SP-Congress talks coincided with Left boss Prakash Karat naming the UP chief minister as a post-poll ally in the emerging 'Third Front'.
The bitterly contested alliance-making over three months between the uneasy partners came apart after Samajwadi brass refused to accept Congress's proposal for friendly fights on some seats which the former won in 2004. SP had dubbed Congress's list of 24 candidates as the obituary of the alliance.
The outcome, that left sitting MPs and hopefuls in both camps unhappy, marked a triumph of long-term fears over the prospect of immediate gains in both sides. Congress, though anxious to thwart Mayawati -- a bigger threat in the longer run -- from becoming stronger, was seen as guided by the consideration of keeping Mulayam from getting a tally that could complicate the party's post-election coalition engineering plans. On the other hand, Mulayam, while recognizing that the tie-up with Congress would have helped with Muslim and Brahmin votes, would not let Congress expand its footprint so much as to turn into a future threat.
Sources said Congress was likely to soon come out with another set of nominees which would pit the party and SP as rivals in more seats than the present 18. If future AICC lists are small, it would be because the party is anyway thin on muscle in the state. An insider estimate puts the number of candidates worth their name to 35.
Mulayam said his party would not contest Mathura, Dharauhra, Rae Bareli, Amethi, Kanpur city and Ghaziabad, implying it would have nominees against sitting Congress MPs in Aligarh, Bansgaon and Varanasi besides confronting strongly-placed AICC nominees in Domariaganj and Khushinagar. They are already face to face on seats like Pratapgarh, Farrukhabad, Rampur, Fatehpur Sikri, Unnao and Bulandshahar.
The Sunday shocker sets the stage for Congress and SP to take some politically fraught calls. While the Samajwadi camp would be wary of helping arch-rival BSP by splitting Muslims and other voting groups with Congress, experience as well as reports from the field suggest there cannot be perfect closet pacts to contain Mayawati in triangular or quadrangular fields.
With the alliance coming apart, Congress has to decide on how far it should go to target Mulayam. Especially, when the two may require each other after polls and when BSP, the beneficiary of the face-off, is also a post-election threat to Congress plans.
Another key move for Congress would be to contest Etah, which is set to witness BJP rebel Kalyan Singh as a star candidate. Congress has been slamming the former saffron leader as responsible for the Babri demolition, raising the hackles of Mulayam, who has roped him in with the idea of consolidating OBCs in central and western UP. Kalyan has emerged as a crucial factor in Mulayam's strategy to take on the RLD-BJP combo in western UP, besides countering BSP's rapid march in the region.
While politically correct, the move to attack Kalyan as communal could hurt Congress's chances where his fellow Lodhs are a factor. Birendra Singh, the party's sitting MP from Kalyan's home turf of Aligarh, is anyway in danger.
But there is indication of a strategic approach in SP's choice of men. The bet on Ajay Rai, a BJP MLA and strongman belonging to Bhumihar community, to take on Mayawati's dreaded Mokhtar Ansari in Varanasi makes it a charged contest of money and muscle power between two communities with a history of bloodshed. BJP's Murli Manohar Joshi risks getting reduced to a sideshow in the atmospherics.
Rai's nomination could influence the contest in Gazipur-Ghosi belt where Bhumihars are a factor even though SP would hope that it also brings about a Hindu polarization in its favour in view of animosity between Ansari brothers and BJP converts. By the same token, BSP's decision to field the Ansaris is likely to win it the support of a chunk of minority community.
Importantly, SP's leaving out Ghaziabad for Congress may not be to the liking of BJP's candidate for the seat, party chief Rajnath Singh, who is banking on RLD's Ajit Singh to help him with Jats. An SP candidate would have helped him by splitting the Muslim votes. Ditto for Mathura, where the SP's favour to Congress hurts the chances of Ajit Singh's son, Jayant, who is launching his political career.
The SP's decision to field a Brahmin from Sultanpur could influence Congress decision-making by bolstering Sanjay Singh's claim over Satish Sharma in the Gandhi family borough.
