BHUBANESWAR: The Biju Janata Dal’s parting ways with the BJP, bordering on brinkmanship, might have just come as a boon to the Congress. In fact, the ground data suggests so.
Though BJP is likely to bear the maximum damage, it has over 5-10 percent vote share in as many as 12 constituencies as per the statistics of 1995 Assembly elections when both the partners contested separately. The difference between the BJD (then JD) and Congress has been only 2-5 percent then. Thus, BJP still commands a base enough to tilt the scales in a triangular contest.
Despite the alliance in the previous two elections, Congress lost by a margin of 0.64 to 4.66 percent in as many as 28 Assembly seats. In 2004 assembly elections the BJD and BJP had seen a nearly three percent swing against it despite the Vajpayee wave. But in terms of seats both lost together only 13. The alliance prevented the Congress from capitalising on the negative swing. Had there been a triangular contest the three percent swing could have resulted in greater seat losses to the BJD-BJP.
Poll arithmetic this time predict that if Congress manages to hold on to the 38 seats it won in 2004 Assembly elections and a swing between 3-5 percent happens in its favour, then the party could most likely pocket more than 28 seats.
However, the road ahead is not smooth. Congress has to put in a strategy to conserve its own vote base besides harnessing in the disillusioned voters like tribals, self-employed in farming or agriculture and students. The rise in suicides in these categories measures the distress. The report Suicides in India-2007’ shows as many as 59 suicides in Orissa were attributed to unemployment. Also, suicides by self-employed engaged in farming/agriculture in Orissa stood at a high of 240 including 70 women.
The party would also tout some of its achievements like enactment of Forest Dwellers Right Act to win tribals confidence and NREGA to for rural unemployed households. However, the onus lies on the State leadership as to how best they can encash and translate the advantage into votes.
Thus, the inference is triangular contest alone cannot makes the Congress’ day but a calibrated approach to people’s issues and well planned campaigning to deliver it to the masses can help it do so.
